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EUR/USD was expected to make new highs above 1.4450 and top out in the 1.46-1.4700 range. I still think that forecast is pretty decent, but I'm leaning more towards the upper end of that target range. There's a good chance the former 1.4719 highs will act as both key resistance, and a bit of a magnet for the EUR/USD, so while I've closed our swing trade long from 1.4219 here around 1.4600 to be safe, I believe the Euro will have another leg higher to the 1.4700 area and that might present a good shorting opportunity.
There's a chance we could bust through 1.4719 and push even higher, but I feel the resistance there is good enough, and the recent run up extended enough to call for a short from that level should we make it up there soon. This recent USD weakening push (that we really saw coming late last week) is potentially the last of this entire Spring/Summer rally and should end in a reversal towards a stronger USD. We picked a nice potential top for that rally on August 4th with a position trade short from around 1.4380, but seeing the downside still too well-supported, we exited that position/bias late last week for a small profit as we will be able to short from higher levels soon. The same selloff we were looking for will still likely happen, but following this shorter term rally currently underway.
Gold's advance hit our minimum target of breaking those $1007 highs getting some nice profits on that swing long from $976, but it looks like gold has one more nice push in it that should take it past Tuesday's highs. I have my final TP for that swing trade at $1035 based on some triangle breakout projections.
BoE Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% unanimously expected) - The opportunity here will not be so much from an interest rate move, but from any further alterations to their Asset Purchase Facility (APF).
Last month they raised the amount by 50 billion pounds and the minutes from that meeting showed that 3 members including Mervyn King himself wanted an even larger increase of 75 billion.
If they leave the total allocation for the APF unchanged, the GBP/USD will likely rally 30-40 pips.
If they increase the total allocation for the APF by 25 billion pounds or more, GBP/USD will likely fall 30-40 pips.
0900 Canada Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.25% unanimously expected) - As with most interest rate decisions nowadays, there is very little chance we'll see rates move. Most of the price action will come in response to commentary made by the central bank in their interest rate statment. Based on my research, I think most people are expecting the BoC to try to talk down the strong CAD with their commentary, so we may see a situation where the CAD is weak heading into the news, but whipsaws into strength shortly after the dovish commentary as people cover their CAD shorts. One good way to play this is to wait for the commentary to be released at about 0900 EST and if it does indeed cause a short term spike up in USD/CAD, wait for signs of a top in those first minute or two and look to short it for a reversal back to and probably through prerelease.
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Forex Trading Signal 9-10-2009
Trading Naked
We all should keep this in mind. That trading is always a probability game. No matter what!
I live in Indonesia, and so many Indonesian believe that western traders are better than us just because so many literature about trading comes in western language.
What we forget is trading is always a probability game. Long term winning trade is based on how we rely on high probability set ups.
The median line is claimed to give around 80 percent of winning probability. By the chance that price will move towards median line.
Learn how to set median line here:
All Their News are Belong To YOU!!
Dear fellow traders,
How are you today? Hope we all had a better day than yesterday eh?
Now, I want to share you a great site that provide fresh and up to date news toward the forex market.
The information is very relevant for beginner in forex market that don't really get the understanding between fundamental analysis with the move in forex market.
As a beginner, sometime we are all fed up with too much informations. Useless informations. We tried to find the relationship between Non-Farm Payrolls with the up and down of EUR/USD or GBP/USD. For those who have been in the market for a year and so, might have found an established ground in interpreting the Economic Calendar.
ATNABTU
Then, I found a great website that provide up to date news and the effect towards the market. Imagine! There are hundreds of website claiming that they are providing the most update news.
Do you really have time to visit all of those sites?
Now, imagine if all the news is brought for you from those many sites just within one page.
Yes! Only one page to search the news you need! The first time I found ATNABTU, I said "This is it! This is what I need!"
With ATNABTU, I don't have to be confused when the market is not moving according to the Economic Calendar. ATNABTU provides the information of what happening in the battleground.
It is like we have a reporter from the front line of the market!
So try it! Why wait? Give yourself a shot! visit ATNABTU
The Most Important Element in Trading
Dear fellow traders,
We all know the most important element in trading our account is not how big your capital is, or even your technical or fundamental skills, and definitely not your broker.
The most important thing when you trade is your psychological status. Not everybody were built to be a successful trader, and unfortunately, this most important element is not teachable.
If you can learn the technical skills or how to read fundamental from the others, the psychological part is derived from your own experiences. Some learn it the hard way.
Therefore, in this post, I want to show you a popular link to test your personality. So you can predict your own behavior when facing some circumstances in trading sessions. This will help you to act right when everything seems to go wrong.
You can take the Inkblot Test to determine your personality.
The Fork strategy a.k.a Median Line - Nice, Simple and Easy
Dear fellow traders,
I won't discuss all of them at once, to avoid a diminishing return.
Okay, the first thing you need, is Method. And that's what I am going to share with you, the Fork Strategy. It is very simple, easy and have high profit probability.
Let's put it on a simple way. A method is, if you asked me today about:
- How do I enter the market?
- What strategy I used?
- When to bail-out of the trade?
- What Money Management strategy do I use?
Have you heard about the Andrew's Pitchfork strategy? The rules in using the Fork are clear and simple. What we need to master it is practice and discipline to follow the rules.
You can download how to use of the Fork, here!
The simple use of it is this:
1. Find 3 pivot points for the day trading range
2. If the price are on the bottom or the upper channel, then 80% of the time the price will test the Median Line
3. Therefore, buy if the price is on the bottom channel, or sell if the price is on the upper channel. The target is the area near the Median Line. (please consider the breakout alert)
4. The simple definition of Pivot is the point where the price turn.
I will discuss what other factors needed to be a successful trader on the next post. Ciao!
